The U.S. Must Consider the Cascading Global Effects of an Attack on North Korea

By Steven Metz

During the past few weeks, the standoff between North Korea and the United States has cooled a bit. Pyongyang has not tested more ballistic missiles or nuclear devices, and U.S. President Donald Trump has not launched more insulting tweets at North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un. That is good, but the crisis is no closer to resolution than it was months or years ago; there is not even a glimmer of light at the end of the tunnel. It remains the world’s most dangerous threat.

As it should, most analysis of a possible conflict between North Korea and the United States focuses on the implications for the Korean Peninsula itself. But the repercussions of an attack on North Korea would not be limited to Northeast Asia. They would be global, touching the United States both indirectly and directly. As American policymakers look for a way ahead, they must weigh the cascading global effects as well as proximate ones.

Consider, for instance, a limited U.S. military strike on North Korea’s nuclear and missile sites. There is at least a chance that Kim Jong Un would realize that lashing out would mean the end of his regime and thus respond with something short of that, perhaps settling for cyberattacks or missile strikes at U.S. military targets nearby. This would still have dangerous effects. Even a limited war would cause panic in the global economy and shake or constrain trade flows. Recognizing that the military confrontation could continue or escalate, nations that are able would shift their business and trade away from Northeast Asia. This would hit the United States directly, short-circuiting economic growth and potentially sparking a recession.

Worse still would be if North Korea lashed out with all of its power after a U.S. military strike. Both North and South Korea would be damaged extensively by most estimates. Japan and U.S. military installations in Asia might be targeted. This would devastate the global economy, causing trade disruptions and shaking the economic foundations of nations dependent on trade with Asia. As is often the case, the risk of such economic collapse could pave the way for political extremism of all stripes, and exacerbate conflicts not only in Asia but also in other places economically connected to the region.

The United States would not be immune to these economic blows. They might push American politics even further toward the poles as the left and right advance dramatically different solutions to the economic slowdown. The same might be true for Europe.

China could be in serious danger if a major war in its backyard endangered the export-driven economic growth that Beijing uses to limit political discontent, since that prosperity is the foundation of China’s political stability. Refugee flows, plus involvement in the stabilization and reconstruction of North Korea, would further strain China. And if China stumbles, so does the world, given its central role in the global economy. China could become even more militaristic and assertive, redoubling its efforts to expel the United States from the Asia-Pacific region.

After a U.S. strike on North Korea, South Korea would certainly re-examine and probably end its security relationship with America over popular rejection of the costs of the military alliance. Japan might do the same, fearing U.S. unpredictability. Many other potential nations might be aghast at America’s disregard for international law and downgrade their security and political ties, too.

Ultimately, it is impossible to know exactly what the far-reaching global political and economic ramifications a U.S. attack on North Korea would have, but it is clear that they would be powerful and traumatic. As American policymakers consider how to deal with the threat from North Korea, this hard reality must factor into the equation.

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